THE V A R I A B L E | January 1998

Governor's Race Will Define
Next Decade of Colorado Politics

Colorado politics is largely defined by its governors, their personalities, administrations and agendas. So when Democrat Roy Romer's 12-year governorship ends in November, a new set of leaders will emerge with a new direction, a new pace and tone. And with that changing of the guard will come perhaps a larger transition for Colorado's from liberal-leaning Democratic leadership to a shift to the right of Colorado's political center.

Romer's final year marks the end of a string of retirements of Colorado Democratic leaders who have dominated since 1974. Dick Lamm, Gary Hart, Tim Wirth and Pat Shroeder all have left public office, creating a void in high-profile proponents of the "New Democratic" philosophy. Concurrent with the spate of retirements came a defining year in conservative politics: passage of tax limitation and an anti-gay rights initiative in 1992. Colorado voters have since affirmed that conservative mood by defeating a series of major tax initiatives, including the tourist tax extension in 1993, and the RTD sales tax and CTN gas tax in 1997.

There also has been a significant rise in conservative partisan voting. Pointing to a new conservative Republican era are the advantages Republicans hold in the number of registered voters, control of four out of six congressional seats and both houses of the State Legislature, and the victories in the 1996 US Senate and Presidential races.

In a dramatic turn of events, Roy Romer's surprise admission of a 16-year affair with a former top staffer could move voters another notch to the right. Romer's entanglement will heighten his lame duck status and hasten the ebb of power from his office toward the Legislature and the Republican challengers who hope to end 24 years of Democratic party rule.

Republicans also may be the beneficiary of the continuing presidential crisis if voters sour to the party as they did after Watergate. It was Nixon's resignation in 1974 and the subsequent pardon that paved the way for Dick Lamm, Gary Hart and Tim Wirth.

Gail Schoettler, the Democratic Lieutenant Governor, has the advantage in endorsements and fundraising, but her lack of charisma and a clear message have allowed her challenger, State Senator and minority leader Mike Feeley, to gather early momentum from labor endorsements.

While candidate personalities and the quality of their campaigns will be important factors, the race may ultimately rest on Colorado voters' willingness to end 24 years of checks and balances between a conservative Republican Legislature and the state's moderate to liberal Democratic governors. The conservative position on social and economic issues, such as banning late-term abortions, ending affirmative action for state employees and college admissions, and outlawing the union shop, have not dominated in Colorado largely because the threat of a gubernatorial veto helped moderate Republican legislators contain the issues in Legislative committees. A new conservative governor would shift the fulcrum of that balance to the right.

GOP Gains Advantage for 1998 Showdown

The Republican party enters the critical 1998 election cycle with a 110,000-voter advantage over Democrats.

In 1962 when John Love began 12 years of Republican rule from the statehouse, there were only 878,000 registered voters in the entire state. Today, there are nearly that many Republicans alone. The high population increase of the last three decades has more than doubled the ranks of registered voters in the state. Most of those voting in the 1998 governor's race will have little memory of former Governor Steve McNichols (1958-1964) and not have voted during Love's governorship.

While the current advantage is to the Republicans, Colorado party identity has always been distinguished by its volatility.

• Colorado has one of the largest percentages of unaffiliated voters in the country. They usually vote the same as the dominate political philosophy in their county, but are weakly anchored to either party. They like to switch their ticket and often vote to send a message.
  
  
• Many Colorado voters are new to the state's political culture. They are unfamiliar with several of the leading personalities of the recent era, which creates opportunities for new leaders and those who wish to reposition themselves, but poses a danger to those relying on their past deeds or reputations. Many of the traditions of Colorado politics may not hold, such as voters splitting party control of the two U.S. Senate seats, or dividing party leadership between the governorship and the legislature.
  
  
• Today's Republican registration dominance is new. In none of the previous three critical elections for governor--1962, 1974 and 1986--did Republican registration exceed Democratic. As recently as 1992, Colorado Democrats ascending along with President Clinton, enjoyed a 12,000-registration advantage.
  
  
• While the number of registered voters has increased, Colorado voter turnout, as with the nation at large, has declined. Seventy percent of registered voters participated in the 1962 gubernatorial election, but only 55 percent voted in 1994.

Campbell Leads Early Handicapping

Colorado's colorful U.S. Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell begins his re-election campaign with an edge over the competition. But it's an advantage he needs given Colorado's recent history of closely fought U.S. Senate races.

Campbell opens the season unopposed in his own party, well-financed and facing two Democratic challengers who lack statewide track records. He will be further aided by an expected low turnout and by the public's satisfaction with a strong economy, which will help incumbents. On the other hand, he stands on the tenuous ground of a party switcher vilified by his old party and under-appreciated by his new one.

Both of Campbell's Democratic challengers enter the race with weaknesses. Dottie Lamm, former three-term Governor Dick Lamm's wife, is best known as a left-leaning editorialist for the Denver Post. Feminists and the Democratic party's Park Hill and Hilltop activists will give her campaign an early boost. But Democratic feminists have not fared well in Colorado Senate races (to wit, former Lt. Governor Nancy Dick's losing effort in 1984, and Boulder politician Josie Heath's misses in 1990 and 1992).

Lesser known Democrat State Senator Gil Romero will challenge Lamm. While he hopes to unite a diverse constituency of labor and minority interests and those tired of the dominance of Lamm/Romer organizations, his only victories so far have been to win safe Democratic seats in Pueblo.

Although Campbell enjoys the lead in early handicapping, he also has vulnerabilities. His primary sponsors are Washington, D.C.-based politicians former Sen. Bob Dole, who wooed him, and majority leader Trent Lott, who protects him today. Campbell's lock on the Republican nomination leaves some in his party unhappy with the lack of a primary choice, and his liberal voting habits on abortion rights and labor issues rile many conservatives. More moderate Republicans disdain his Old West environmental record. But, his independent leanings have allowed him to retain supporters in organized labor, among more conservative rural Democrats, and among minority groups, especially the Hispanic community.

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