THE V A R I A B L E | winter 1996
Republicans defend U.S. Senate
Republicans will be defending and attempting to expand their new Senate majority in 1996. Hank Brown's surprise retirement after one term sets up Colorado's leading partisan fight for the 1996 election season.
| Date | First Seat | Second Seat |
| 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 |
Allot (R) Allot (R) Allot (R) Haskell (D) Haskell (D) Haskell (D) Armstrong (R) Armstrong (R) Armstrong (R) Armstrong (R) Armstrong (R) Armstrong (R) Brown (R) Brown (R) Brown (R) ??? |
Dominick (R) Dominick (R) Dominick (R) Dominick (R) Hart (D) Hart (D) Hart (D) Hart (D) Hart (D) Hart (D) Wirth (D) Wirth (D) Wirth (D) Campbell (D) Campbell (D) Campbell (R) |
Colorado's Senate races won by Democrats tend to be close. While Campbell beat Terry Considine by 141,000 votes in 1992, he received only 52 percent of the vote, with third-party candidates receiving 5 percent. Tim Wirth won the seat against Ken Kramer by a mere 17,000 votes in 1986, and Hart's 1980 race was razor close against Mary Estill Buchanan (19,000 votes).
Republican Senate winners have achieved wider vote margins. Brown won his 1990 election with a 144,000-vote spread over Democrat Josie Heath (56% to 42%), and Bill Armstrong easily won both of his races (64% to 35% over Nancy Dick in 1984 and 59% to 40% over Floyd Haskell in 1978).
Record expenditures can be expected as both national parties want this high-profile seat.
DIRECT DEMOCRACY:
Colorado's New Growth Industry
Colorado's most expensive election campaigns are now voter-initiated constitutional amendments and statutes. More money was spent on 1994's record 14 initiatives than on the expensive and hotly contested governor's race ($10 million to $8 million). Initiatives are becoming more expensive because they are affecting both how Coloradans govern themselves, as well as impacting powerful state interest groups.
The 1992 passage of the TABOR--or tax limitation--amendment, and its significant alteration of local government finance, began the recent increase in the number of initiatives and related investments made in passing or defeating them. The cigarette tax proposal in 1994 and Amendment 12--the second Doug Bruce effort to rearrange the Colorado constitution--attracted the most attention and money. A record $7.4 million was spent defeating the cigarette tax, and $874,000 was spent against Amendment 12.
This presidential year promises to provide initiatives to excite or offend every culture, sensitivity and interest group.
Since WWII, only Democrats Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson had carried Colorado in presidential contests prior to Clinton's surprise victory in 1992. Clifton captured 40 percent of the vote, but his win was only secured because Pert recorded 23 percent of the vote--one of PERT's highest state totals.
Today the state continues to closely reflect national trends. Mirroring recent national polls, Cirri Associates' survey of 500 voters conducted in late October 1995 showed Clifton beating Dole 41% to 36%.
Expect Colorado to be a battleground state, with heavy advertising and campaign forays by both parties to the state.
Presidential Primary
On March 5, Colorado will hold its second presidential primary. President Clifton has no serious opposition, but the Republican primary should be competitive.
Four years ago, the Democratic primary was the shutout, with Jerry Brown (29%) beating Bill Clifton (27%) and Paul Tongs (26%) in a close race. Clifton's second-place finish in Colorado, along with winning Georgia the same day, re-energized his campaign.
President Bush easily defeated Pat Buchanan (68% to 30%).
Colorado's first primary was set early in March of 1990 to give the state some influence in presidential selection. But since 1990, many states have moved their delegate selection events forward. New York and California have jumped their primaries into March to make the month decisive.
In 1992, about half of all delegates were selected by April 1. This year, 75 percent of delegates of both parties will be selected by the end of March.
Whatever doubts may remain regarding the Republican nomination should be eliminated on March 26, the date of the California primary.
Colorado now shares March 5 with Connecticut, Georgia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Rhode Island and Vermont.
Major 1996 Election Dates
March 5 - Colorado Presidential Primary
April 2 - Precinct Caucus
June 8 - State Party Conventions
August 12 - 15 - Republican National Convention - San Diego
August 13 - Colorado Party Primary
August 26 - 29 - Democratic National Convention - Chicago
November 5 - Election Day
©1996 Ciruli Associates. All rights reserved