Even in Budget Crisis Coloradans Support TABOR Amendment
Limits on Taxes and Government Spending
Analysis by Floyd Ciruli

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Question: In 1992 Colorado voters passed Amendment 1, the TABOR Amendment, a constitutional amendment that requires voting on all tax increases and limits the annual increase in revenue state and local government can spend. After ten years of operation, do you support the amendment, not support the amendment or want to change the amendment?

The amendment, which passed with 54 percent support in 1992, has been the center of recent controversy concerning the state’s revenue crisis. Many political leaders, policy advocates and civic and interest groups claim the amendment hamstrings government finances and should be changed or abolished.

The survey was conducted by Ciruli Associates with a random sample of 603 registered voters from March 8 to March 11, 2003 (±4.0 percentage points) for www.ciruli.com.

Change TABOR Amendment
Among the 16 percent of Colorado voters who believe the amendment should be changed, most want it to be less restrictive.

TABOR Amendment Changes
Make less restrictive/raise the limits government can keep		36%
Just change (no specifics)		21%
End it		8%
No tax increases at all/limit all spending/cap all spending		7%
Require higher vote to increase taxes/require higher vote to override spending limits		5%
Legislature should decide taxes		5%
Too complex		3%
Don’t know/refused		6%
Other		8%
(Legislature should have the right to change use of lotto funds; you get yourself in a bind if you vote on every tax, it’s too expensive to go to the voters on each issue; we would not be in such a deficit if could change where votes needed; should require a vote to decide what to vote on instead of every little thing; needs to be a case by case amendment; taxes still increased; stop giving out tax credits and giving them money; don’t call for a balanced budget every year.)
Ciruli Associates, N98, 2003

Question - What part of the TABOR Amendment would you change?

There are several proposed changes to the TABOR Amendment, including removing all restrictions in annual growth of government revenue and spending, removing the ratchet-down effect by creating a catch-up provision or allowing the spending cap to remain at its highest level, and creating an emergency rainy day fund for economic downturns that would not have to be refunded to voters.

Demographic Constituencies and the TABOR Amendment
It appears there is a constituency for changing the amendment, but as of today, wholesale abolishment of either the voting requirement or government revenue and spending limits would be difficult. The strongest voice either for change or abolishing TABOR comes from higher-educated and upper-income voters, especially Democrats.

Support, Opposition and Changes to TABOR Amendment
Support Amendment	60%	.	Oppose Amendment	15%	.	Support Changing  Amendment	16%
$40,000-$79,000	68%		Post grad Democrats	44%		Post-grad Democrats	29%
Male Republicans	68%		$80,000 or more	31%		$80,000 or more	27%
Strong Republicans	68%		Male Democrats	24%		Male Democrats	27%
$39,999 or less	66%		Post-grads	24%		$40,000-$79,000	26%
High school grads	66%		Strong Democrats	24%		Household work in K-12	25%
Female Republicans	64%		$80,000 or more	21%		College grad Democrats	24%
White Republicans	64%		White Democrats	21%		Post-grads	24%
						Ciruli Associates, N603, 2003

Question - In 1992 Colorado voters passed Amendment 1, the TABOR Amendment, a constitutional amendment that requires voting on all tax increases and limits the annual increase in revenue state and local government can spend. After ten years of operation, do you support the amendment, not support the amendment or want to change the amendment?

Political Environment and Additional Researcht
The two questions asked in this survey offer only a start in analysis of key factors effecting opinion concerning the TABOR Amendment. Although there has been considerable news coverage and commentary, the topic is complex and the public is still not well informed on the issues or alternatives.

The budget, crisis which has engulfed political leaders and civic elites and turned their attention to Colorado’s constitutional finance and spending restraints, has yet to be felt by the public in terms of less service and/or higher fees or requests for tax increases. Many voters may see the current revenue problems as part of the periodic belt tightening one expects during an economic downturn. Voters tend to be skeptical of claims of crises from government because they assume there is some fat or less-essential programs. Previous surveys and voter analyses show that Colorado voters in general believe they pay excessive taxes and have a low level of trust in the government’s ability to restrain spending.

Each of the major proposed TABOR Amendment changes should be tested, including their impact on important values and concerns of the public. Also researched should be effects of and potential changes to the Gallagher (property tax) Amendment and to Amendment 23, which impacts constitutionally assured school financing.

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SURVEY FACTS

Telephone survey was conducted by Ciruli Associates from March 8 to March 11, 2003 with 603 Colorado adult registered voters. Selection from a random sample of statewide registered voters who voted in the 2000 presidential election or are newly registered since November 2000. Statistical range of accuracy in 19 out of 20 cases is ±4.0 percentage points for a sample size of 601. Sample tolerances for subgroups are larger. For example, the confidence interval for a subgroup of 300 respondents is ±5.7 percentage points. Due to rounding, not all totals equal 100 percent. Survey results can be affected by other factors such as question wording and order. Ciruli Associates is a non-partisan research, communication and public policy firm providing consulting services to Colorado and national organizations since 1976. For additional copies of this report contact Ciruli Associates.

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