One week before absentee voting begins, the latest statewide Ciruli Associates poll shows Democrat Bill Ritter with a 10-point lead (43% to 33%) over Republican challenger, Congressman Bob Beauprez. Four percent of the state’s likely voters support other candidates; 20 percent are undecided. The survey was completed on Monday, Oct. 2, just as Republicans began an intense advertising campaign criticizing Ritter’s track record on illegal immigration prosecutions while he was Denver District Attorney. The substantial level of undecided voters means the race could change in the final weeks of the campaign.

The poll also shows that Democratic voters are far more enthusiastic about the election than Republican voters (46% of Democrats, 31% of Republicans say they’re enthusiastic).


Question: If you had to vote today for governor, would you vote for Bill Ritter, the Democrat, or Bob Beauprez, the Republican, or some other candidate? [ROTATED]

Other candidates on ballot, but not mentioned by respondents: Clyde Harkins, Dawn Winkler-Kinajeder, Paul Fiorino, write-in candidates Gary Cooper, Darla Herold and Chuck Sylvester. Congressman Tom Tancredo’s name was mentioned.

Ciruli Associates, N500, 2006

The statewide survey was conducted by Ciruli Associates with 500 likely Colorado voters from September 26 to October 2, 2006. The political questions were part of a survey concerning economic development sponsored by the Economic Developers’ Council of Colorado. The statistical range of error is ±4.4 percentage points.

Party Differences
Although Republican voter registration in Colorado exceeds Democrats by more than 170,000, Beauprez trails because he receives less support from his own Republican voters compared to Ritter’s support from Democrats. Ritter receives 70 percent of Democratic voters and only loses 10 percent to Beauprez. But Beauprez wins only 60 percent of Republican voters and loses 15 percent to Ritter.

More than a third of Colorado voters register unaffiliated; Ritter is winning the group 51 percent to 19 percent, a major factor in his lead.

Sept. 14, 2006 registration: 1,062,720 Republican, 890,154 Democrat, and 986,398 unaffiliated.

Ciruli Associates, N500, 2006

Demographic Characteristics
Ritter holds a commanding lead over Beauprez (49% to 29%) in the Denver metro area, which provides about 55% of the total statewide vote. Ritter leads in the North Front Range (43% to 34%) and the Western Slope (44% to 32%). Beauprez leads Ritter on the Eastern Plains (44% to 24%), but the area provides only 4 percent of the statewide vote. He also leads in the South Front Range (48% to 24%). However, 30 percent of that area still is undecided.

Table 1 Demographic Characteristics of Ritter and Beauprez Voters

Statewide	Ritter	Beauprez	Undecided
Region
Metro area	49%	29%	18%
North Front Range	43%	34%	21%
South Front Range	28%	44%	30%
Eastern Plains*	24%	48%	24%
Western Slope	44%	32%	19%
Gender
Male	41%	37%	19%
Female	44%	29%	22%
Race/Ethnicity
White	43%	34%	19%
Hispanic*	42%	19%	31%
Black*	50%	--	33%
*Small sample size Ciruli Associates, N500, 2006

White non-Hispanics, who represent 87 percent of likely Colorado voters, favor Ritter by nine percentage points (43% to 34%). Hispanics, who traditionally lean Democrat, are supporting Ritter (42% to 19%), but 31 percent are undecided. Ritter leads among women by 15 percent and men by 4 percent.


Voter Enthusiasm
Democrats go into the election with an advantage in voter enthusiasm. Democrats are 15 percentage points more passionate about the election. Nearly a third (29%) of Republicans say they are “less enthusiastic about voting.”


Question: Compared to previous elections, are you more enthusiastic about voting in the upcoming November election or less enthusiastic about voting?

Ciruli Associates, N500, 2006