Ciruli Associates - Colorado Politics - Polls - Research - Public Policy

In a year with a record number of ballot proposals, only a handful were winning a week before the election. Of those proposals of concern for the business community, two were still ahead, but all four had declined in the last three weeks due to opposition campaigns and publication of numerous opposing editorials.

The minimum wage increase was leading with 61 percent, but that reflects an eight-point decline from Oct. 2 until the Oct. 26 Ciruli Associates survey. The limit on gifts for public officials was still ahead with 62 percent, but had dropped six points since Oct. 2. Term limits for state supreme and appeals court judges were barely above 50 percent (a fall of five percentage points from 56% on Oct. 2). Support for expanding initiative rights had collapsed from 55 percent on Oct. 2 to 37 percent in the final pre-election survey.

November Ballot Proposals Oct. 2 and Oct. 26, 2006
	Don’t Know		Support		Oppose
Proposal	Oct. 2	Oct. 26	Oct. 2	Oct. 26	Oct. 2	Oct. 26
Amendment 42 raise minimum wage	69%	61%	26%	30%	5%	9%
Amendment 41 prohibit gifts for officials	68	62	25	24	7	13
Amendment 40 term-limit courts	56	51	34	35	11	13
Amendment 38 allow more initiatives	55	37	32	41	13	22
Ciruli Associates, N500, Oct. 2; N501, Oct. 26, 2006

Question: Switching to ballot issues, the following proposals will be on the ballot this November in Colorado. Please tell me, as of today, if you definitely support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or definitely oppose the proposal. If you don’t have an opinion, just say so. [ROTATED]

Question: Amendment 42 – to the Colorado Constitution increasing the state’s minimum wage to $6.85 per hour and thereafter increasing it annually at the rate of inflation.

Question: Amendment 41- to the Colorado Constitution that would prohibit cash and gifts of more than $50 to be given to government employees, elected politicians, other officials and their families.

Question: Amendment 40 – to the Colorado Constitution that limits State Supreme and Appeals court judges to a maximum of 10 years on the bench.

Question: Amendment 38 – to the Colorado Constitution change the rules and procedures of initiative and referendum petitions and make it easier for citizens to propose initiatives for the ballot at all levels of state and local government.

The statewide survey was conducted by Ciruli Associates with 501 likely Colorado voters from Oct. 24 to Oct. 26, 2006. The survey was conducted as a partnership between 9 KUSA and ciruli.com, the political website of Floyd Ciruli. The statistical range of error is ±4.4 percentage points. Ciruli Associates is a non-partisan research firm providing polling, election analysis and political commentary to Colorado and national media organizations since 1986.

Most Contested Ballot Issues Failing

Typically, a ballot proposal needs to be above 50 percent the final week to survive the onslaught of late negative advertising and opposition votes from final undecided voters. When the full list of the major ballot 2006 issues was examined, few appeared headed toward passage.

Legalization of marijuana had support from only 35 percent of voters; 56 percent opposing. Both efforts to regulate K-12 education spending appeared to be losing with the more restrictive version (Amendment 39) receiving only 42 percent support (40% opposed) and the less restrictive version (Referendum J) tied with 36 percent each in favor and opposed.

Voter Opinion on Key State Ballot Issues Ballot Issues Summary
Proposal	Support	Oppose	Don’t Know
Amendment 41 prohibit gifts	62%	24%	13%
Amendment 42 minimum wage	61	30	9
Amendment 43 gay marriage ban	55	38	7
Amendment 40 judicial term limit	51	35	13
Referendum I domestic partnership	48	44	8
Amendment 39 65% (more restrictive)	42	40	18
Amendment 38 expand initiative	37	41	22
Referendum J 65% (less restrictive)	36	36	28
Amendment 44 legalize marijuana	35	56	8
Ciruli Associates, N501, Oct. 26, 2006

Question: See question wording at end of analysis.

Voters were opposing the gay rights position on the marriage ban and domestic partnership proposals. The gay marriage ban (Amendment 43) was attracting 55 percent of Colorado voters, but only 48 percent supported domestic partnership, with 44 percent in opposition – the second highest level of opposition after the marijuana amendment.

Large Partisan Difference Among Many Ballot Proposals

Several ballot proposals had significant partisan differences. Minimum wage, for example, had support of only 32 percent of Republicans, but 70 percent of Democrats. Legalizing marijuana was supported by Democrats 2-to-1 more than Republicans. There is a 30-point difference between Republicans and Democrats on the gay marriage ban and 37 percent difference in the opposite direction on domestic partnership.

Partisan Difference Among Definite Supporters of Ballot Issues
	Definitely Support	Definitely Support
Proposal	Definitely Support	Republican	Unaffiliated	Democrat
Amendment 41 prohibit gifts	48%	46%	42%	55%
Amendment 42 minimum wage	51	32	60	70
Amendment 43 gay marriage ban	54	71	40	41
Amendment 40 judicial term limit	40	47	36	34
Referendum I domestic partnership	39	22	40	59
Amendment 39 65% (more restrictive)	24	25	28	19
Amendment 38 expand initiative	20	16	22	25
Referendum J 65% (less restrictive)	23	23	24	21
Amendment 44 legalize marijuana	27	15	30	40
Ciruli Associates, N501, Oct. 26, 2006

On the other hand, there were less significant partisan differences on the political gift ban, the two directives on K-12 spending and the effort to expand the initiatives.

Question Wording

Question: Amendment 39 – to the Colorado Constitution that requires each school district spend at least 65 percent of operational spending in classroom instruction. Formula does not include principals, counselors and transportation.

Question: Amendment 43 –to the Colorado Constitution stating that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in the State of Colorado.

Question: Amendment 44- to the Colorado Constitution to legalize possession of one ounce or less of marijuana by any person 21 years old and older.

Question: Referendum I –an amendment to the Colorado statute establishing domestic partnership laws between two persons of the same sex.

Question: Referendum J – a statute that requires a school district spend at least 65 percent of its operational spending on services that directly effect student achievement. Formula includes principals, counselors and transportation.