Drought and Water Shortage Increase Concern About Growth

Statewide Land Use Survey
July 30, 2002

By Ciruli Associates

This report was prepared for Colorado officials and organizations interested in open space and land-use regulations by Ciruli Associates as part of regular scan of issues effecting Colorado politics and public policy.

Despite an economic slowdown and reduction in population in-migration, Colorado voters remain intensely concerned about growth, land use and quality of life issues. Results from open space and land-use regulation questions in a July 2002 statewide voter survey show the public continues to believe growth, land-use management and open space are critical issues that require public policy action. It appears voters are associating their escalating concerns about water shortages and rationing with growth. Drought has become a daily reminder that rapid growth has consequences. Voters are divided on a ballot initiative for land-use regulation. However, their support for more open space is wide spread and bridges partisan differences and regions of the state.

Among the key findings:

• Concern about the pace of Colorado growth continues despite the economic slowdown.
  
  
• Support for more open space is high.
  
  
• The public supports additional legislative action on land use but it is more ambivalent about a statewide land use ballot initiative.
  
  
• The Crown Jewels proposal has 72 percent public support. That reflects a slight decline since January (77%). Also, the question did not describe a funding source. However, it is a strong position from which to begin an education and communication program.

The voter survey was conducted by Ciruli Associates from July 8 to July 14, 2002. The telephone survey of 601 Colorado adult registered likely voters has a statistical range of accuracy of ±4.0 percentage points.

Colorado Land Use Attitudes

Direction of State of Colorado

Let me ask you a general question about how you believe things are going in Colorado.

Overall, would you say things are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track here in Colorado?

.	July ‘02	Jan. ‘02
Right direction	58%	64%
Wrong track	28%	27%
Don’t know/refused	14%	10%

Since January of this year, would you say the local economy has improved, is about the same or is getting worse?

.	July ‘02	Jan. ‘02
Improved	12%	40%
About the same	41%	37%
Worse	45%	20%
Don’t know/refused	2%	2%

Question in January 2002: “Would you say the economy in this area will improve, be about the same or get worse in 2002?”

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Major Issues

Thinking about Colorado issues, what would you say is the top issue you would like the governor and state legislature to deal with in Colorado? Any other important issue?

.
Education	21%
Jobs/economy	21%
Growth	19%
Water/drought	18%
Transportation/roads/transit	13%
Taxes	5%
Budget/fiscal problems	3%
Environment	3%
ealthcare/insurance/Rx	3%
Guns	1%
Crime/drugs	1%
Death penalty	1%
Fires	1%
Senior issues (housing, social security reform)	1%
Other	10%
Don’t know	12%

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Growth and Open Space

Do you believe growth today in Colorado is too fast, about right or too slow?

.	July ‘02	Jan. ‘02
Too fast	72%	67%
About right	25%	28%
Too slow	1%	2%
Don’t know/refused	2%	3%

Do you believe Colorado needs to preserve additional open space land or has it preserved enough open space land?

.	July ‘02
Preserve more	70%
Preserved enough	24%
Don’t know/refused	6%

In the last legislative session, no additional legislation was approved to manage growth. Would you say you were disappointed, pleased or not concerned that the legislature failed to pass additional growth management legislation in the session just completed?

.	July ‘02	Jan. ‘02
Disappointed	67%	68%
Pleased	6%	4%
Not concerned	19%	21%
Don’t know/refused	8%	6%

Some environmental and other citizen groups believe there should be a statewide ballot initiative that would increase the growth management power of cities and counties to direct, and in some cases, slow or stop growth and development. They believe growth is causing increased congestion and damaging the quality of life and natural habitat. Opponents argue that cities and counties have enough growth management power and that with our current slower growth and weakened economy we should not increase the growth management power of local cities and counties. If you had to vote today would you support or oppose a ballot initiative that would increase the growth management powers of cities and counties?

.	July ‘02
Support	57%
Oppose	32%
Don’t know/refused	11%

Managed Growth Initiative and Party Identity and Congressional Districts
	Total	Rep	Unaff	Dem	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
Support	57%	49%	58%	68%	60%	59%	54%	56%	58%	61%	55%
Oppose	32%	39%	29%	25%	24%	36%	34%	31%	32%	30%	33%

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Crown Jewels

If there were a ballot issue in the November 2002 election dedicating up to $50 million dollars of state revenue to the purchase of significant parcels of open space land around the state, would you definitely support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or definitely oppose the issue?

			Summary
.			.	July ‘02	Jan. ‘02
Definitely support	40%		Support	72%	77%
Somewhat support	32%		Oppose	22%	19%
Somewhat oppose	11%		Not concerned	19%	21%
Definitely oppose	11%
Don’t know/refused	6%

Crown Jewels and Party Identity and Congressional Districts
	Total	Rep	Unaff	Dem	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
Definitely sup.	40%	33%	44%	45%	30%	50%	29%	43%	44%	39%	40%
Definitely opp.	11%	14%	11%	7%	3%	8%	18%	13%	11%	9%	15%

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Demographics

What was the last grade or degree you completed at school?

.
Grade 1-11	3%
High school graduate	20%
Some college/business/vocational school	21%
College graduate	30%
Postgrad work/professional graduate	24%
Refused	2%

How old are you?

.
(18-24)	3%
(25-34)	8%
(35-44)	20%
(45-54)	25%
(55-64)	17%
(65 and over)	23%
Refused	3%

Thinking about political philosophy, would you say you are?

.
Very liberal	7%
Moderate lean liberal	17%
Middle of the road	27%
Moderate lean conservative	27%
Very conservative	18%
Other	1%
Don’t know/refused	3%

How long have you lived Colorado?

.
5 years or less	10%
6 to 10 years	9%
11 to 20 years	13%
More than 20 years	65%
Don’t know/refused	3%

Do you subscribe to the Denver Post or Rocky Mountain News, both or neither paper?

.
Denver Post	19%
Rocky Mountain News	17%
Both	16%
Neither	45%
Don’t know/refused	4%

Are you from Hispanic or Spanish-speaking background?
IF NO ASK: with which race do you identify yourself: are you white, black, Asian, Native American, or some other ethnic or racial background:

.
White	86%
Hispanic	6%
Black	1%
Asian	1%
Native American	1%
Other	2%
Don’t know/refused	4%

RECORD RESPONDENT’S SEX

.
Male	47%
Female	53%

RECORD POLITICAL PARTY FROM LIST

.
Republican	44%
Democrat	32%
Unaffiliated	22%
Other	1%

RECORD CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT FROM LIST

.
District 1	12%
District 2	15%
District 3	15%
District 4	14%
District 5	15%
District 6	16%
District 7	12%

SURVEY FACTS

Telephone survey conducted by Ciruli Associates from July 8 to July 14, 2002. Telephone survey of 601 Colorado adult registered voters likely to vote in the November 2002 general election. Selection from a random sample of statewide registered voters who voted in the 2000 presidential election or are newly registered since November 2000. Respondents were screened to identify likely registered voters in this November election. Statistical range of accuracy in 19 out of 20 cases is ±4.0 percentage points for a sample size of 601. Sample tolerances for subgroups are larger. For example, the confidence interval for a subgroup of 300 respondents is ±5.6 percentage points. Due to rounding, not all totals equal 100 percent. Survey results can be affected by other factors such as question wording and order. Ciruli Associates is a non-partisan research, communication and public policy firm providing consulting services to Colorado and national organizations since 1976.

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