Ciruli Associates Poll

Hickenlooper has Highest Favorable to
Unfavorable Rating Along Front Range

Survey Results
April 5, 2005
Analysis by Floyd Ciruli

Front Range voters, which comprise about 80 percent of Colorado’s electorate, have an overwhelmingly positive view of Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper.  Sixty-one percent of voters rate him favorably, and his positive-to-negative ratio is more than 10-to-1, exceeding that of many of the state’s leading politicians and President George W. Bush.

Leaders	Total Favorable	Total Unfavorable	Don’t Know	Ratio of Favorable To Unfavorable
Ken Salazar	71%	9%	21%	7.9
Bill Owens	66	26	8	2.5
Hickenlooper	61	6	34	10.1
G.W. Bush	54	44	2	1.2
Wayne Allard	53	16	30	3.3
Ward Churchill	11	70	19	(6.4)

Question:  As I read the following list of political leaders and other people, please tell me your impression of each one as very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable. If you aren’t familiar with a name, or don’t have an opinion, just say so.

Ciruli Associates, N505, 2005

Hickenlooper achieved his 61 percent favorable score despite of more than a third (34%) of voters not being familiar with him.

The telephone survey was conducted March 14-17, 2005 by Ciruli Associates with 505 Colorado Front Range registered active voters (±4.4 percentage points).  Front Range counties are:  Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, Elbert, El Paso, Jefferson, Larimer, Pueblo and Weld (the 12 counties have a total of 2,554,000 voters or 80% of all voters statewide).  This analysis is part of a series of reports on Colorado and national issues published by Ciruli Associates.  Additional analysis in this series can be found on www.ciruli.com.

Newly elected U.S. Senator Ken Salazar has the highest favorability rating (71%).  He is the second most popular in terms of positive-to-negative ratio at 7.9-to-1 positive. 

Gov. Bill Owens maintains the rating he has received during most of his term in office (66% favorable).  He received a 64% favorability rating statewide in August 2001, just before 9/11, and earned 66% in October 2003.

President Bush received only a 54 percent favorability, with nearly as many Front Range voters rating him negatively (44%).  As the chart below shows, he attracts the most intense feelings.  At 33 percent, he has the highest “very favorable” rating, and a nearly equal number (31%) give him a “very unfavorable” rating.  (His most recent national favorability has been in the low 50% range.)

Favorable and Unfavorable Ratings by Front Range Voters
Leaders	Very Favorable	Somewhat Favorable	Somewhat Unfavorable	Very Unfavorable	Don’t Know
G.W. Bush	33%	21%	13%	31%	2%
Hickenlooper	27%	34%	4%	2%	34%
K. Salazar	26%	45%	6%	3%	21%
Owens	23%	43%	14%	12%	8%
Allard	17%	36%	10%	6%	30%
Churchill	2%	9%	13%	57%	19%

Question:  As I read the following list of political leaders and other people, please tell me your impression of each one as very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable.  If you aren’t familiar with a name, or don’t have an opinion, just say so.

Ciruli Associates, N505, 2005

U.S. Senator Wayne Allard’s 53 percent favorability is relatively low.  However, because his negative rating is also low (only 16% unfavorable), he earns a slightly higher positive-to-negative ratio than the governor.  Note that U.S. senators tend to be less well-known than governors.  Even during their elections and re-elections, they have up to a quarter of voters regularly unable to rate them.

Not surprising, the negative ratio was earned by University of Colorado Professor Ward Churchill (6.4 negative-to-positive as opposed to positive-to-negative).  Seventy percent of voters view him as unfavorable compared to 11 percent who rate him favorably.

Hickenlooper Scores High Rating in Denver Metro Area
Hickenlooper scores his highest favorability rating (75%) in the Denver metro area where he also is very well-known (only 19% can’t rate him).  Nearly half of northern Colorado voters are unable to rate him and 78 percent of southern Colorado voters are unfamiliar with him.  Because his negative-to-positive rate is high in the North and South Front Ranges, as more voters become familiar with him, his ratings should improve, at least under current circumstances.

North Front Range:  Larimer and Weld
Metro Area:  Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, Elbert and Jefferson
|South Front Range:  El Paso and Pueblo

Ciruli Associates, N505, 2005

Hickenlooper has Broader Support Than Owens
Mayor Hickenlooper’s name has been featured in recent weeks as a potential Democratic candidate for governor.  Compared to Gov. Owens, the table below shows Hickenlooper is seen as less partisan.  Gov. Owens, after a long political career and more than six years as governor, has built up more opposition, much of it among Democrats.

Comparison of Hickenlooper’s and Owens’ Favorability
		Hickenlooper			Owens
	Total in Sample	Favorable	Not Favorable	Don’t Know	Favorable	Not Favorable	Don’t Know
Total	100%	61%	6%	34%	66%	26%	8%
Party ID
Republican	42	59	7	35	87	8	5
Unaffiliated	26	58	5	36	64	25	10
Democrat	32	65	4	31	38	50	12
Region
North Front Range	13	49	5	47	74	21	6
Denver Metro Area	68	75	6	19	61	30	8
South Front Range	19	17	5	78	77	14	10

Ciruli Associates, N505, 2005

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Ciruli Associates is a non-partisan research, communication and public policy firm providing consulting for Colorado and national organizations since 1976.

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