Clinton Impeachment Acquittal - Colorado Survey
Ciruli Associates - February 2-15, 1999
A new Colorado survey shows President Clinton, fresh from his acquittal, continues to have a low personal favorability rating, but high scores on job performance. The survey also indicates a majority of Coloradans agree with the impeachment acquittal. The Colorado survey of 415 adult residents was conducted from February 2 to 15, 1999 by Ciruli Associates.
Ratings
A comparison of the latest poll with an October 10, 1998 survey shows Bill Clinton continues to have a higher negative favorability rating than positive (38% positive to 41% negative in February 1999; 36% positive to 46% negative in October 1998). The negative gap has closed slightly since October of last year.
Question: As I read the following list of political leaders, please tell me your impression of them whether you think very favorably of them, somewhat favorably, you are neutral, you think somewhat unfavorably or very unfavorably of them. If you aren't familiar with them or don't have an opinion, just say so.
Among other leaders tested, Mayor Wellington Webb is the best known Democratic officeholder in Colorado. He has a 50 percent positive rating and only a 13 percent negative opinion. Sixty-five percent of Democrats rate him favorably.
Attorney General Ken Salazar could be identified by only 55 percent of Colorado residents, but he had a high positive to negative ratio among those who could identify him. While 33 percent of Democrats gave him a positive rating, even in his own party, 48 percent did not know enough about him to give a rating.
Favorability Rating Summary
February 1999 and October 1998
|
Fav.
|
Neutral
|
Unfav.
|
Don't
know
|
Fav./
Unfav.
Ratio
|
Fav.
|
Neutral
|
Unfav.
|
Don't
know
|
| Romer |
52% |
13% |
24% |
11% |
2.2 |
53% |
8% |
28% |
9% |
| Webb |
50% |
14% |
13% |
23% |
3.8 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Clinton |
38% |
14% |
41% |
6% |
(0.9) |
36% |
13% |
46% |
5% |
| Owens |
38% |
18% |
10% |
34% |
3.8 |
32% |
17% |
14% |
37% |
| Salazar |
23% |
17% |
4% |
55% |
5.8 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Ex-Governor Roy Romer held his 50 percent plus favorability rating. But he also maintained a high, 24 percent, negative rating.
Favorable and Unfavorable Rating
February 1999 and October 1998
| Leader |
Very
Fav.
|
Smwht.
Fav.
|
Neutral
|
Smwht.
Unf.
|
Very
Unf.
|
No
Opin.
|
Don't
Know/
NA
|
| President Clinton |
19% |
19% |
14% |
10% |
31% |
5% |
1% |
| Attorney General Ken Salazar |
7% |
16% |
17% |
3% |
1% |
34% |
21% |
| Former Governor Roy Romer |
22% |
30% |
13% |
12% |
12% |
8% |
3% |
| Denver Mayor Wellington Web |
20% |
30% |
14% |
7% |
6% |
14% |
9% |
| Governor Bill Owens |
15% |
23% |
18% |
5% |
5% |
24% |
10% |
Governor Owens
About a third of Coloradans claim to not know or are unable to rate Governor Bill Owens, which is comparable to polls conducted during last fall's election. Owens received a 38 percent favorable rating and a 10 percent unfavorable rating for a 3.8 ratio of positive to negative responses, similar to Mayor Webb.
Fifty-three percent of Republicans rate him favorably and only 4 percent give him an unfavorable rating, but more than a quarter of Republicans (28%) could not rate him. Owen's high neutral rating also reflected residents' still unfocused image.
Bill Owens
Favorable and Unfavorable Ratings
| Rating |
All
|
Dem.
|
Unaff.
|
Rep.
|
Very
Interest
in
Politics
|
| Favorable |
38% |
32% |
28% |
53% |
43% |
| Neutral |
18% |
27% |
22% |
15% |
17% |
| Unfavorable |
10% |
16% |
12% |
4% |
16% |
| No opinion/don't know |
34% |
35% |
38% |
28% |
25% |
The public's impression of Governor Owens is now in formation. His management of the first Legislative session and early political conflicts and crisis will create the initial image of the Governor.
President Clinton's Approval and Impeachment
Bill Clinton's presidency was largely saved by public opinion. Coloradans, like the nation, separate their general impressions of Clinton from his job performance. In spite of a higher negative than positive favorable rating, Coloradans give Bill Clinton a 60 percent job performance rating, which is similar to his rating in October 1998. This bifurcation of opinion continued throughout much of the scandal. The high job performance helped keep potential Democratic defectors in the fold during the scandal's most serious moments and limited the damage of the Independent Council and the House prosecutors.
Question: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as president?
Among people who say they are most interested in politics, Clinton's job approval drops to 56 percent approval and 41 percent disapproval. Black (85% approval) and Hispanic (75% approval) Coloradans give Clinton his highest approval ratings. College graduates provide his lowest (49% to 47%) marks, but residents with post-graduate work and degrees give Clinton a high rating (62% approval).
Clinton's Job Approval
| Rating |
All
|
Very
Interest
in
Politics
|
College
Educated
|
More
than
College
|
| Approve |
60% |
56% |
49% |
62% |
| Disapprove |
35% |
41% |
47% |
35% |
| Don't know |
5% |
2% |
4% |
3% |
Ethnicity / Race
|
White
|
Hispanic
|
Black
|
| Approve |
57% |
75% |
85% |
| Disapprove |
38% |
16% |
12% |
| Don't know |
5% |
9% |
35 |
Impeachment
Coloradans were in agreement with national sentiment on impeachment. Sixty percent were opposed to a Senate conviction of President Clinton.
Question: As I read you a list of possible courses of action concerning the impeachment of President Clinton, what do you believe should be the final result?
Voters were divided equally among those who wanted censure, especially unaffiliated voters, and those who wanted to drop the matter, especially Democrats. More than half of Republicans (52%) wanted conviction and removal. Nearly half of Democrats (47%) wanted acquittal and no censure.
Impeachment
|
All
|
Dem.
|
Unaff.
|
Rep.
|
Male
|
Female
|
| Convict and remove |
29% |
12% |
21% |
52% |
32% |
26% |
| Not convict and drop matter |
30% |
47% |
32% |
16% |
25% |
35% |
| Not convict and censure |
30% |
29% |
40% |
26% |
31% |
30% |
| Don't know |
11% |
12% |
7% |
6% |
12% |
10% |
One of the touchstones of the impeachment debate has been the stability of public opinion. A consistent majority of the public has opposed removal from office. In the October 1998 poll, 38 percent of Coloradans said Clinton should either resign or be impeached and removed and 56 percent favored censure or dropping the matter, which is similar to the latest poll results.
October 1998
| Resign |
24% |
| Be impeached and removed |
14% |
| Be censured |
36% |
| Matter dropped |
20% |
| Don't know |
5% |
Political Effect
Little about the Clinton impeachment has been predictable, but one of the most surprising results is the negative effect it appears to have had on Republicans. A substantial plurality of Coloradans (39%) say Republicans have been hurt more by the entire event.
Question: Would you say Democrats or Republicans have been hurt more by the House impeachment and Senate trial of President Clinton?
While Democrats (56%) are more likely to say Republicans were more hurt than their own party by the impeachment, even 37 percent of Republicans, a plurality, believe their own party was the most hurt by the impeachment and trial of Bill Clinton. By six percentage points, women more than men believe Republicans were hurt more than Democrats.
Which Party Hurt Most by Party and Gender
| Party Hurt |
All
|
Dem.
|
Unaff.
|
Rep.
|
Male
|
Female
|
| Democrat |
17% |
20% |
13% |
21% |
17% |
17% |
| Republican |
39% |
56% |
36% |
37% |
36% |
42% |
| Both |
23% |
17% |
25% |
23% |
25% |
22% |
| Neither |
7% |
4% |
10% |
8% |
5% |
8% |
| Don't know |
14% |
4% |
16% |
10% |
17% |
11% |
| Ciruli Associates, N415, 1999 |
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|
|
|
|
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Bill Clinton has introduced a new political strategy to American politics: the successful management of scandal from Flowers in 1992 to Lewinski in 1998. Clinton has gained, not lost, support in personal scandals.
Survey Facts
- Telephone survey of 415 adult residents of Colorado conducted by Ciruli Associates February 2 to February 15, 1999. Survey was conducted for publication in The Variable, a Ciruli Associates newsletter, and website at www.ciruli.com.
- Sample was selected by random dialing that gave all Colorado residential telephone numbers, listed and unlisted, and equal chance of being included.
- Statistical range of accuracy in 19 out of 20 cases is ±4.8 percentage points. Sample tolerances for subgroups are larger.
- Due to rounding, not all totals equal 100 percent.
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