• Direction of State of Colorado
• U.S. Race
• Attorney General Race
• Major Issue
• Ballot Issues
• Approval of President
  - Ratings
  - Foreign Policy
• Congressional District Races
  - Fourth Congressional District
  - Seventh Congressional District
• Demographics

SURVEY FACTS

Telephone survey conducted by Ciruli Associates from October 9 to October 12, 2002 of 500 Colorado adult registered voters likely to vote in the November 2002 general election. Selection from a random sample of statewide registered voters who voted in the 2000 presidential election or are newly registered since November 2000. Respondents were screened to identify likely registered voters in this November election. Statistical range of accuracy in 19 out of 20 cases is ±4.4 percentage points for a sample size of 500. Sample tolerances for subgroups are larger. For example, the confidence interval for a subgroup of 200 respondents is ±6.9 percentage points. Telephone survey of Colorado Congressional Districts conducted by Ciruli Associates from October 9 to October 15, 2002 in the 4th and 7th congressional district with 400 and 403 Colorado adult registered likely voters in each district respectively. Statistical range of accuracy in 19 out of 20 cases is ±4.9 percentage points for a sample size of 400. Due to rounding, not all totals equal 100 percent. Survey results can be affected by other factors such as question wording and order. Three other 9News/Denver Post surveys are referenced: June 25 to 28, 2001, 452 likely voters; January 23 to 31, 2002, 600 likely voters and July 8 to 14, 2002, 601 likely voters. Ciruli Associates is a non-partisan research firm providing polling, election analysis and political commentary to Colorado and national media organizations since 1976.

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How often would you say you vote...always, nearly always, part of the time or seldom?

.
Always	72%	CONTINUE
Nearly always	8%	CONTINUE
Part of the time	-	THANK AND TERMINATE
Seldom	-	THANK AND TERMINATE
Don’t know/refused	-	THANK AND TERMINATE

Thinking about the general election in November of this year for Governor, Senator, Congress and other offices, please rate your chances of voting in that election on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 represents definitely will not vote, and 10 represents definitely will vote. Where on this scale of 1 to 10 would you place yourself?

.
10	89%	CONTINUE
9	6%	CONTINUE
8	5%	CONTINUE
7-1	-	THANK AND TERMINATE
Don’t know/refused	-	THANK AND TERMINATE

	Oct. ‘02	July ‘02	Jan. ‘02	June ‘01
Allard	38%	37%	35%	42%
Strickland	41%	46%	51%	42%
Rick Stanley (L)	2%	-	-	-
Douglas “Dayhorse” Campbell (AC)	-	-	-	-
John Hechman (COP)	-	-		-
Other (vol)	4%	1%	1%	1%
Won’t vote (vol)	0.4%	-	-	-
Don’t know/refused	14%	16%	13%	15%

U.S. Senate Race, Party Identity and Gender
	Total	Rep.	Unaff.	Dem	Male	Female
Allard	41%	69%	38%	7%	46%	36%
Strickland	38%	13%	30%	75%	36%	41%
Don’t know/refused	14%	12%	22%	13%	11%	17%

As I read the following issue statements please tell me if you believe Wayne Allard or Tom Strickland would be better in addressing the issue. Rotated

	Allard	Strickland	Neither	Both	Don't know
Possible war with Iraq	42%	28%	7%	4%	19%
Strengthening national defense	50%	25%	6%	2%	17%
Protecting the environment	32%	45%	5%	1%	16%
Reviving the economy	39%	0%	8%	2%	17%
Improving the social security system	33%	0%	11%	1%	18%
Preventing corporate corruption	36%	0%	15%	2%	19%
Protecting the right to legal abortion	18%	0%	7%	1%	25%
Reducing health care cost	33%	0%	14%	1%	22%

11. Both Republican Wayne Allard and Democrat Tom Strickland have run television advertisements that criticize their opponent. Has the use of negative ads led you to lower your opinion of Allard, Strickland, or both–or has the use of the ads had no effect on your opinion about the candidates?

.
Lower opinion of Allard (R)	7%
Lower opinion of Strickland (D)	5%
Lower opinion of both	58%
No effect	29%
Don’t know/refused	1%

12. The U.S. Senate is controlled by Democrats with a one-vote majority. Is keeping control of the Senate by Democrats or shifting control to Republicans a factor in your vote for U.S. Senate or not a factor?

	Voters For
.	TOTAL	Allard	Strickland
Yes, a factor	52%	51%	63%
No, not a factor	45%	47%	35%
Don’t know/refused	3%	2%	2%

13. Next, let me ask you about the Colorado governor’s election. If the November 2002 election for governor were held today would you vote for Democrat Rollie Heath, Republican Bill Owens or for a third party candidate? Rotated

	Oct. ‘02	July ‘02	Jan. ‘02	June ‘01
Rollie Heath	21%	28%	19%	20%
Bill Owens	64%	56%	59%	54%
Ralph Shnelvar (L)	1%	-	-	-
Ron Forthofer (G)	1%	-	-	-
Charles Van Layton (I)	-	-		-
Other (vol)	3%	1%	1%	0.4%
Won’t vote (vol)	0.4%	-	-	-
Don’t know/refused	11%	15%	21%	26%

Governor Race, Party Identity and Gender
	Total	Rep.	Unaff.	Dem	Male	Female
Owens	64%	86%	65%	34%	68%	60%
Heath	21%	7%	16%	42%	19%	22%
Don’t know/refused	11%	4%	12%	18%	9%	12%

14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Owens is handling his job as governor?

	Oct. ‘02	July ‘02	Jan. ‘02	June ‘01
Approve	79%	67%	70%	65%
Disapprove	23%	24%	23%	26%
Don’t know/refused	5%	9%	7%	9%

.			Code
Ken Salazar (D)	48%		D=Democrat R=Republican G=Green L=Libertarian Ref=Reform		Nat=Natural Law AC=American Constitution COP=Concerns of People I=Independent Una=Unaffiliated
Marti Allbright (R)	24%
Dwight Harding (L)	1%
Alison Maynard (G)	1%
Other (vol)	2%
Won't vote (vol)	1%
Don’t know/refused	24%

16. What do you consider the most important issue in this election?

.
Jobs/economy	30%
Iraq/remove Hussein	11%
Education	6%
National Defense	5%
Bilingual (Amendment 31)	3%
Healthcare/insurance/Rx	3%
Social Security	3%
Abortion	2%
Balance between two parties (control of senate, get Democrats and/or Republicans out	2%
Environment	2%
Growth	2%
Taxes	2%
Water/drought	2%
Budget/fiscal problems	1%
Corporate corruption	1%
Terrorism	1%
Crime/drugs	1%
Guns	0.4%
Senior issues (housing, social security reform)	0.4%
Transportation/roads/transit	0.2%
Other	4%
Don't know	17%

17. Since January of this year, would you say the local economy has improved, is about the same as in January or is getting worse?

	Oct. ‘02	July ‘02	Jan. ‘02
Improved	7%	12%	40%
About the same	31%	41%	37%
Worse	61%	45%	20%
Don’t know/refused	1%	2%	2%

.	Definitely Support		Somewhat Support		Somewhat Oppose		Definitely Oppose		Don't Know
	Oct	July	Oct	July	Oct	July	Oct	July	Oct	July
18. After one year of English immersion, conduct all public school instruction in English except in very limited cases where parents are able to get a waiver to have their child taught in a bilingual class (A31)	31%	42%	17%	24%	10%	12%	30%	17%	11%	5%
19. End the constitutional limit of two consecutive terms for District Attorneys so DA’s can serve as many terms as elected (RB)	23%	23%	18%	21%	14%	16%	33%	32%	12%	8%
20. Limit campaign contributions for governor and other statewide office to five hundred dollars for the primary and five hundred dollars for the general election. In addition, limit legislative candidates to two hundred dollars each election cycle (A27)	45%	37%	20%	26%	6%	9%	14%	15%	15%	13%
21. Abolish the rule that requires a voter to register 30 days before an election and allow voter registration at the polling place on election day (A30)	26%	25%	12%	16%	10%	10%	45%	45%	6%	4%
22. Conduct all elections, primary, general or special, using mail-in ballots (A28)	35%	-	21%	-	11%	-	24%	-	9%	-
A - Amendment R - Referendum

Ballot Issue Summary
	Support		Oppose		Don't Know
	Oct	July	Oct	July	Oct	July
Limit bilingual	49%	66%	41%	29%	11%	5%
Limit campaign contributions	65%	63%	20%	24%	15%	13%
Mail-in ballots	56%	-	35%	-	9%	-
End DA term limits	41%	44%	47%	48%	12%	8%
Election day registration	38%	41%	55%	55%	6%	4%

	Oct. ‘02	July ‘02	Jan. ‘02	June ‘01
Approve	61%	69%	83%	56%
Disapprove	33%	25%	12%	39%
Don’t know/refused	6%	6%	5%	5%

Ratings

As I read the following list of political leaders and candidates, please tell me your impression of each one as either very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable. If you aren’t familiar with a name, or don’t have an opinion, just say so. Rotated

.	Very Favorable	Somewhat Favorable	Somewhat Unfavorable	Very Unfavorable	No Opinion	Don't know
24. President George W. Bush	41%	24%	11%	21%	2%	0.2%
25. Businessman Rollie Heath	5%	16%	9%	6%	31%	33%
26. U.S. Senator Wayne Allard	25%	29%	17%	19%	7%	3%
27. Former U.S. Attorney Tom Strickland	15%	34%	18%	16%	11%	6%
28. Governor Bill Owens	41%	33%	12%	11%	2%	1%

Ratings Summary
	Favorable		Unfavorable		No Opinion/ Don't Know
	Oct	July	Oct	July	Oct	July
Owens	74%	74%	23%	22%	3%	4%
W. Bush	65%	73%	32%	24%	2%	3%
Allard	54%	65%	36%	19%	10%	16%
Strickland	49%	58%	34%	17%	17%	26%
Heath	21%	19%	15%	6%	64%	75%

Foreign Policy

Next, I will ask your opinion on a series of statements that concern American foreign policy.

29. Do you believe inspectors with free access to suspected weapon sites in Iraq would be sufficient to protect U.S. interests or do you believe U.S. military action in Iraq to remove Saddam Hussein is necessary?

	Voters For
.	TOTAL	Allard	Strickland
Inspectors sufficient	40%	22%	64%
Remove Hussein	48%	70%	23%
Don’t know/refused	11%	8%	13%

30. Thinking about your vote for congress, if you had to choose, which of the following two issues is most important to your vote–economic conditions or possible war with Iraq? Rotated

	Voters For
.	TOTAL	Allard	Strickland
Economic conditions	41%	36%	49%
Possible war with Iraq	35%	42%	32%
Both	19%	20%	16%
Neither	1%	1%	1%
Don’t know/refused	3%	2%	3%

Fourth Congressional District

32. Thinking about the congressional district election, if you were voting today would you vote for the Democrat Stan Matsunaka, Republican Marilyn Musgrave or for a third party candidate? Rotated

.
Marilyn Musgrave (R)	48%
Stan Matsunaka (D)	31%
John Volz (L)	1%
Other (vol)	7%
Won’t vote (vol)	1%
Don’t know/refused	13%

33. Is there any one issue that has led you to support (candidate name)?

.	TOTAL	Matsunaka	Musgrave
Party	20%	14%	23%
Performance	12%	14%	11%
Lesser of two evils	7%	8%	6%
Abortion	5%	2%	6%
Familiarity	3%	1%	4%
Taxes	3%	2%	3%
Gun control	2%	1%	3%
Opponents negative ad campaign	2%	4%	2%
Agriculture	1%	1%	2%
Bipartisan	1%	2%	-
Education	1%	3%	-
Iraq	1%	2%	-
Personality	1%	2%	1%
Prescription drugs/healthcare	1%	2%	-
Religious beliefs	1%	-	1%
Water drought	1%	1%	1%
Other	1%	1%	-
Don’t know/refused	39%	40%	38%

Fourth Congressional District, Party Identity and Gender
	Total	Rep.	Unaff.	Dem	Male	Female
Musgrave	48%	76%	26%	20%	53%	44%
Matsunaka	31%	11%	38%	59%	27%	35%
Don’t know/refused	13%	8%	19%	15%	12%	13%

Fourth Congressional District, Region and Own a Gun
	Total	Metro Area	No. Front Range	Eastern Plains	Gun
Musgrave	48%	42%	46%	58%	55%
Matsunaka	31%	28%	34%	22%	23%
Don’t know/refused	13%	17%	11%	16%	13%

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Seventh Congressional District

34. Thinking about the congressional district election, if you were voting today would you vote for the Democrat Mike Feeley, Republican Bob Beauprez or for a third party candidate? Rotated

.
Bob Beauprez (R)	40%
Mike Feeley (D)	38%
G.T. “Bud” Morton (L)	1%
Other (vol)	2%
Don’t know/refused	19%

35. Is there any one issue that has led you to support (candidate name)?

.	TOTAL	Feeley	Beauprez
Party	27%	22%	31%
Abortion	14%	15%	13%
Performance	12%	13%	11%
Lesser of two evils	4%	5%	3%
Familiarity	2%	3%	1%
Labor issues	2%	3%	1%
Personality	2%	1%	2%
Prescription drugs/healthcare	2%	2%	2%
Balance parties in congress	1%	1%	1%
Economy	1%	2%	1%
Education	1%	3%	1%
Iraq	1%	-	1%
Opponents negative ad campaign	1%	2%	1%
Prescription drugs/healthcare	1%	2%	1%
Religious beliefs	1%	-	1%
Women rights	1%	1%	1%
Other	1%	-	4%
Don’t know/refused	29%	30%	27%
BASE 293

Seventh Congressional District, Party Identity and Gender
	Total	Rep.	Unaff.	Dem	Male	Female
Beauprez	40%	72%	27%	10%	48%	32%
Feeley	38%	11%	35%	71%	32%	43%
Don’t know/refused	19%	13%	35%	17%	15%	24%

.	State	CD4	CD7
Grade 1-11	4%	4%	3%
High school graduate	19%	26%	20%
Some college/ business/vocational school	24%	24%	25%
College graduate	29%	26%	28%
Postgrad work/professional graduate	25%	19%	21%
Refused	1%	1%	2%

37. How old are you?

.	State	CD4	CD7
(18-24)	3%	3%	3%
(25-34)	12%	10%	9%
(35-44)	14%	18%	15%
(45-54)	22%	22%	20%
(55-64)	19%	16%	25%
(65 and over)	28%	30%	25%
Refused	1%	2%	2%

38. Do you have any children 18 years old or younger living at home?

.	State	CD4	CD7
Yes	43%	46%	32%
No	54%	48%	61%
Refused	3%	5%	7%

39. Thinking about political philosophy, would you say you are?

Summary
	State		.	State	CD4	CD7
Very liberal	6%		Liberal	26%	23%	27%
Moderate lean liberal	20%		Moderate	27%	25%	27%
Middle of the road	27%		Conservative	43%	46%	44%
Moderate lean conservative	27%
Very conservative	16%
Other	1%
Don’t know/refused	2%

40. Do you or anyone in your household own a gun?

.	State	CD4	CD7
Yes	43%	46%	32%
No	54%	48%	61%
Refused	3%	5%	7%

41. How long have you lived Colorado?

.	State	CD4	CD7
5 years or less	10%	9%	6%
6 to 10 years	10%	7%	6%
11 to 20 years	14%	10%	11%
More than 20 years	65%	72%	75%
Don’t know/refused	1%	1%	1%

42. Considering political parties, do you usually identify yourself as a:

Summary
	State		.	State	CD4	CD7
Strong Democrat	17%		Democrat (Strong and weak)	26%	22%	29%
Not very strong Democrat	9%
Independent leaning Democrat	11%		Independent (Not affiliated and leaners)	32%	34%	36%
Independent. Not affiliated with either party	13%
Independent leaning Republican	8%
Not very strong Republican	11%		Republican (Strong and weak)	39%	40%	32%
Strong Republican	28%
Other	1%
Don’t know/refused	1%

43. In what county are you registered to vote?

.
	State	CD4	CD7
A. Metro area: Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, Jefferson	54%	9%	100%
B. North front range: Larimer, Weld	10%	71%	-
C. South Front Range: El Paso, Teller, Pueblo	16%	-	-
D. Eastern Plains: North/Central: Cheyenne, Elbert, Kit Carson, Lincoln, Logan, Morgan, Phillips, Sedgwick, Washington, Yuma (3%) South: Baca, Bent, Crowley, Huerfano, Kiowa, Las Animas, Otero, Prowers (2%)	5%	20%	-
E. Western Slope: Northwest/North Central: Clear Creek, Eagle, Garfield, Gilpin, Grand, Jackson, Mesa, Moffat, Pitkin, Rio Blanco, Routt, Summit (8%) Central East/Central West: Chaffee, Custer, Delta, Fremont, Gunnison, Hinsdale, Lake, Montrose, Ouray, Park, San Miguel (4%) South Central: Alamosa, Conejos, Costilla, Mineral, Rio Grande, Saguache (1%) Southwest: Archuleta, Dolores, La Plata, Montezuma, San Juan (2%)	15%	-	-

44. RECORD RESPONDENT’S SEX

.	State	CD4	CD7
Male	46%	48%	48%
Female	54%	52%	52%

45. RECORD POLITICAL PARTY FROM LIST

.	State	CD4	CD7
Republican	43%	49%	42%
Democrat	35%	29%	36%
Unaffiliated	21%	22%	22%
Other	1%	-	-

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