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Owens and Hickenlooper at Top of Political Field
Among Statewide Voters
October 13, 2006
Analysis by Floyd Ciruli
In the most recent Ciruli Associates voter poll, Governor Bill Owens (63%) and Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (61%) are the state’s most popular officeholders. U.S. Senator Ken Salazar is in third with 56 percent favorability. The favorability question probes voters’ impressions of officeholders and candidates with no title or description attached to their name. A scale from “very favorable” to “unfavorable” is used, and voters are encouraged to say if they do not know the person, or just don’t have an opinion. It is a good test of voter awareness and goodwill toward the elected official and candidate.
Bill Ritter, Democrat gubernatorial candidate, has a 48 percent favorability rating and a low 19 percent unfavorable rating. Republican Bob Beauprez has only a 37 percent positive rating and a nearly equal negative rating (36%). A third of voters were unable to rate Ritter and a quarter couldn’t rate Beauprez.
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Colorado’s Best Known and Most Popular Politicians
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Organization
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Favorable
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Unfavorable
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Don’t Know
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Ratio of Favorability to Unfavorability
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Bill Owens
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63%
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30%
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7%
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2.1
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John Hickenlooper
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61
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9
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31
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6.8
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Ken Salazar
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56
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30
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14
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1.9
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Bill Ritter
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48
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19
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34
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2.5
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Wayne Allard
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47
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25
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28
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1.9
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George W. Bush
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45
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52
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3
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(1.2)
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Bob Beauprez
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37
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36
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26
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1.0
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Tom Tancredo
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35
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28
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36
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1.2
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| Ciruli Associates, N500, 2006 |
Question: As I read the following list of political leaders, please tell me your impression of each one as very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable. If you aren=t familiar with a name, or don=t have an opinion, just say so. [ROTATED]
The statewide survey was conducted by Ciruli Associates with 500 likely Colorado voters from September 26 to October 2, 2006. The political questions were part of a survey concerning economic development sponsored by the Economic Developers’ Council of Colorado. The statistical range of error is ±4.4 percentage points. This analysis is the sole responsibility of Ciruli Associates.
The support base for Owens and Hickenlooper is very different. Owens primarily draws partisan support among fellow Republicans around the state; Hickenlooper has more bipartisan support and is known primarily in the metro area and North Front Range (more than 70% of South Front Range and 50% of Western Slope voters could not rate Hickenlooper).
Owens and Hickenlooper Statewide Favorability Ratings
Very Favorable and Favorable Combined
Ciruli Associates, N500, 2006
Some other observations concerning the favorability table:
- Hickenlooper also has the highest percentage of overall voters who rate him “very favorable,” as well as an incredibly low unfavorability rating (see table below). Although Owens receives some criticism from conservative leaders of his party, 87 percent of rank and file conservative Republicans surveyed give him an overall favorable rating and 47 percent say “very favorable.”
| Complete Range of Favorability Ratings |
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Official
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Very
Favorable
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Somewhat
Favorable
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Somewhat
Unfavorable
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Very
Unfavorable
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No
Opinion
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Don’t
Know
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John Hickenlooper
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30%
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31%
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5%
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4%
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13%
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18%
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Bill Owens
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24
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39
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18
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12
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4
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3
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George W. Bush
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22
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23
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10
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42
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2
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1
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Ken Salazar
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20
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36
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17
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13
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8
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6
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Wayne Allard
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16
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31
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10
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15
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15
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13
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Tom Tancredo
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13
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22
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10
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18
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14
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22
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Bill Ritter
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13
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35
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12
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7
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17
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17
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Bob Beauprez
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10
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27
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14
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22
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12
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14
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| Ciruli Associates, N500, 2006 |
- President Bush is the most polarizing leader tested in the poll. He has near universal awareness and 22 percent of voters are “very favorable” to him. Forty-two percent rate him “very unfavorable,” nearly twice as high as the 22 percent of voters who have a bad impression of Beauprez.
- Ritter is still not well-known, especially in the South Front Range. Beauprez is also less well-known in the South Front Range and among Eastern Plains voters compared to the metro area. Many core Republican voters still do not know Beauprez sufficiently to offer their impression of him. His high negative rating is largely a product of his months-long fight for the nomination with Mark Holtzman, and the 2005 controversy surrounding Referendum C. Neither candidate generates much passion yet from voters.
- U.S. Senator Wayne Allard is unknown to 30 percent of the public. Not surprisingly, Allard receives his best rating from 4th Congressional District constituents (33% “very favorable” and 29% “somewhat favorable”), where he served prior to the U.S. Senate.
- Although illegal immigration is a top issue for Colorado voters, a third of Colorado voters do not know Tom Tancredo, including 56 percent of the more conservative South Front Range. He has a high negative rating among those who can rate him.
- Ciruli Associates is a non-partisan research firm providing polling, election analysis and political commentary to Colorado and national media organizations since 1976.
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