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Hickenlooper Dominates Political Field
Among Denver Primary Voters
Survey Results
July 11, 2006
Analysis by Floyd Ciruli
In a new poll to test favorability of local and statewide politicians, Denver likely voters in the August primary put Mayor John Hickenlooper at the top of their list. U.S. Senator Ken Salazar comes in second as most favorably rated.
Hickenlooper and District Attorney Mitch Morrissey have the highest favorable-to-unfavorable ratio, each exceeding 6-to-1 positive-to-negative ratings. Among Denver primary voters (who lean Democratic), U.S. Congressmen Bob Beauprez and Tom Tancredo have the highest negative-to-positive ratios (1.7 and 1.6 negative-to-positive, respectively).
| Hickenlooper Leads Favorability Rating in Denver |
|
Name
|
Total
Favorable
|
Total
Unfavorable
|
Don't
Know
|
Ration to
Favorable
To Unfavorable
|
|
John Hickelooper
|
83%
|
12%
|
5%
|
6.9
|
|
Ken Salazar
|
71%
|
22%
|
8%
|
3.2
|
|
Bill Ritter
|
64%
|
12%
|
24%
|
5.3
|
|
Bill Owens
|
41%
|
47%
|
11%
|
(1.1)
|
|
Mitch Morrissey
|
34%
|
5%
|
61%
|
6.8
|
|
Tom Tancredo
|
32%
|
50%
|
18%
|
(1.6)
|
|
Bob Beauprez
|
29%
|
52%
|
19%
|
(1.7)
|
| Ciruli Associates, N275, 2006 |
Question: As I read the following list of political leaders, please tell me your impression of each one as very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable. If you aren’t familiar with a name, or don’t have an opinion, just say so.
The telephone survey was conducted June 23-28, 2006, by Ciruli Associates with 275 Denver likely primary voters (+5.9 percentage points). This analysis is part of a series of reports on Colorado and local issues published by Ciruli Associates. Additional analyses of Colorado and national public opinion can be found on www.ciruli.com.
Name Identification and the District Attorneys
Politicians were rated without identifying their office; hence, the question provided a good test of political awareness among more attentive and more partisan voters. The two district attorneys on the list have the lowest name identification. Current District Attorney Mitch Morrissey was not known or not rated by 61% of voters and former District Attorney Bill Ritter (now the sole Democratic gubernatorial candidate) was not rated by nearly a quarter of voters. Republican Congressman Tom Tancredo has significant name identification (comparable to Gov. Bill Owens and ahead of Congressman Beauprez).
Full Range of Favorability
An examination of the responses to the favorability question displayed below shows that more than half of Denver voters give John Hickenlooper their highest rating. Although both Ken Salazar and Bill Ritter have substantial “very favorable” ratings, there is less intensity for them at least partially because Hickenlooper still has considerable bipartisan Republican support, which partisan politicians typically lose. (Although Hickenlooper is a Democrat, he was elected as the non-partisan mayor of Denver.)
Hickenlooper has a 75% favorability among Republicans and 86% among Democrats. Second place Democrat Salazar also does reasonably well with Republican voters (he has a 53% positive rating among Republicans). Conversely, Republicans Owens and Tancredo have 26% and 18% favorable ratings among Democrats, respectively.
Full Range of Favorability Ratings in Denver
|
|
Name
|
Very
Favorable
|
Somewhat
Favorable
|
Somewhat
Unfavorable |
Very
UnFavorable
|
No Opinion
|
Don't
Know
|
|
John Hickelooper
|
54%
|
29%
|
6%
|
6%
|
3% |
2%
|
|
Ken Salazar
|
33%
|
38%
|
12%
|
10%
|
6% |
2%
|
|
Bill Ritter
|
24%
|
40%
|
8%
|
4%
|
15% |
9%
|
|
Tom Tancredo
|
11%
|
21%
|
12%
|
38%
|
10%
|
8%
|
|
Bill Owens
|
10%
|
31%
|
22%
|
25%
|
8% |
3%
|
|
Mitch Morrissey
|
8%
|
26%
|
4%
|
1%
|
24% |
37%
|
|
Bob Beauprez
|
6%
|
23%
|
14%
|
38%
|
13% |
6%
|
| Ciruli Associates, N275, 2006 |
Question: As I read the following list of political leaders, please tell me your impression of each one as very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable. If you aren’t familiar with a name, or don’t have an opinion, just say so.
After seven years in office, Republican Gov. Owens receives a slightly negative favorability rating among a Democratic-leaning Denver primary electorate.
Denver Partisan Voters and the Governor’s Race
Denver’s pre-primary voters are mostly Democrats. Fifty-nine percent are registered Democrat, 29% Republican and only 12% unaffiliated. More typical registration percentages tend to be 50% Democrat, 32% Republican and 18% unaffiliated.
Bill Ritter’s service as Denver’s district attorney has left him a strong base of favorable opinion. Most Denver Democrats (75%) rate him positively (only 7% give him an unfavorable rating). He also has a surprisingly good rating, nearly 2 to 1 positive, among Denver Republicans.
It appears the concern among Ritter supporters, that liberals would resist him due to his pro-life position and law enforcement background, is misplaced. Only 4% of liberals and 8% of women in the Denver electorate rate him unfavorably.
Ritter and Beauprez Favorability Among Partisans
Ciruli Associates, N275, 2006
Bob Beauprez is lagging among Republicans, with just half (51%) rating him positive and more than a quarter (27%) having a negative impression. Two-thirds of Democrats give him a negative rating at this point in the campaign.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Ciruli Associates is a non-partisan research firm providing polling, election analysis and political commentary to Colorado and national media organizations since 1976
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